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Can City Come Back From Protests, Pandemic, Plus A Plunging Economy?
Largest, Most Costly Riots In History Devastate Denver; City Has $226 Million Budget Gap, Up $46 Million In A Month
by Glen Richardson
Already reeling from three months of city-state coronavirus shutdown orders, more than a week of protests and riots against racism and police brutality have left Denver devastated. Clashing with police, rioters looted and caused nightly property damage to businesses just as they were beginning to reopen.
In size, scope and scale, the riots are the largest and most costly in Denver’s history. Protests were longer and more destructive than any previous race riot dating back to the1880 Chinese Halloween riot on Wazee St. Neither the Holy Week protest following MLK’s Assassination or the Chicano Crusade for Justice were of the same magnitude or duration.
The Mile High City’s worst previous riot happened when the Denver Broncos won their first Super Bowl in January 1998. Thousands of fans went on a rampage overturning cars, looting and vandalizing city buildings. Smaller scale disturbances have followed other Broncos championships plus when the Avalanche won their first Stanley Cup in 1996 and again in 2001.
Capitol Carnage
Near the Capitol on Colfax Ave., down the 16th St. Mall and along South Broadway, businesses were boarded-up nightly on block after block. Many had done so as a safety precaution, but others covered damage or the properties had been vandalized. Corporate and privately owned establishments large and small worried about insurance coverage as their bank accounts, hopes and dreams drained. Since businesses were just reopening following the pandemic, employers are considering whether to postpone or return workers to downtown job sites.
Battered by days of protests, nine state buildings, including the State Capitol and adjacent monuments, were damaged or defaced. It included every set of stairs to the Capitol building, every sign, plus lights that line the walkway. Many trees plus the building’s parking lots were also damaged. Some second floor windows were smashed by rocks, including windows at the offices of Gov. Jared Polis and his chief of staff. Windows on the truck of Senate President Leroy Garcia parked outside the Capitol building were also shattered. Restoring-replacing marble, granite, brass and glass doesn’t come cheap. The state is self-insured for up to about half a million dollars.
Downtown rioters claiming to seek justice, ironically vandalized a monument honoring victims of injustice. Known as the Khachkar Memorial to the Armenian Genocide, it commemorates the victims of all crimes against humanity, including racism and slavery. Initial assessment of riots by the Downtown Denver Partnership suggest that slightly more than half of the damaged properties were along the 16th Street Mall.
Budget Gap Grapple
Overtime costs for large groups of police plus the Colorado National Guard on the ground during the riots will add millions of dollars to the city’s growing budget deficit. Denver is now facing a $226 million projected budget gap for 2020, up $46 million from what the city projected just a month ago (Chronicle June).
As riots stoked Denver’s financial slide, the city is reaching out to its landlords seeking rent relief. It is a tenant in 15 leases, including the Denver Post Building. Denver recently agreed to a $10 million sublease for an additional 92,000-sq.-ft. on the Post’s ninth floor. That’s in addition to space leased on floors one, seven and eight, where the city will spend about $32 million over the course of those leases.
City departments working in the Post building include Parks & Recreation, Public Health & Environment, and the Office of Emergency Management. On May 4 the City Council unanimously approved a measure proposing to defer rent for three months in exchange for extending each lease term by three months.
Rent Heebie-Jeebies
With the city’s massive apartment buildup and more units expected to open in the coming months, officials are nervously watching how Denver’s rent trends will impact the city’s outlook. Denver rents declined 0.4% in June, and are down slightly compared to the same time last year.
Currently, median rents in Denver stand at $1,067 for a one-bedroom and $1,351 for a two-bedroom apartment. June was the second straight month that the city has seen rents decrease after an increase in March as the pandemic hit.
Denver’s year-over-year rent growth lags the state average of 0.3%, as well as the national average of 0.8%. The dips are occurring at a time when rent growth normally picks up steam seasonally. If the trend continues it could lead to tighter competition for rental units at the middle and lower ends of the market, while luxury vacancies get harder to fill.
Cost Cutting
To battle the double-barreled economic hit, city officials say they plan to mitigate through furloughs, spending cuts, hiring slowdowns and investment prioritization. Furloughs are mandatory days off without pay. City employees must now take eight furlough days — five scheduled and three flexible — in 2020, which Mayor Hancock believes will add about $16 million back to the city’s general fund.
Of the approximate 12,000 city employees, all nonuniform employees will be required to take the furloughs. Uniformed employees, who are under collective bargaining agreements, are not required to take them — nor are elected officials,
Mayor Hancock says, however, that Denver is expediting city construction projects which he claims will, “Keep the whole ecosystem of the economy moving.”
Remodel Rein-In
Nevertheless, the Mayor has put a crucial portion of Denver’s massive National Western Center campus remodel on hold. The city’s ramshackle National Western Complex — home of the National Western Stock Show & Rodeo — is supposed to be made over into a hub where food and agricultural science meet arts and entertainment.
A combination of voter-approved tourism taxes and private investors are meant to pay for the project wedged between I-70 and the Platte River in Elyria-Swansea.
On hold is a key portion of the campus, known as “the Triangle” (named for its shape), with a 10,000-seat arena to replace the Denver Coliseum and host the stock show, concerts, and other events. A new exposition hall and the restoration of a 110-year-old building, which may be converted into a market, are also paused. The Triangle portion of the $1 billion National Western project is estimated at $528 million.
Coronavirus Triggers Collapse Of Denver-Cherry Creek’s Building Boom
Tax Revenue To Drop $180 Million, Double ’09 Recession; Joblon Fears Cherry Creek’s BMC Eatery Ventures May Not Survive
by Glen Richardson
Construction that’s been a-boomin’ in Denver-Cherry Creek since 2013, fueled by a strong job market and a booming tech industry, is about to go bust. That’s the conclusion of an online panel discussion dissecting the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the metro economy.
Hosted by BusinessDen — the Mile High City’s online homepage — a foursome of developers speaking at Assembly III made it clear that we’ve just seen a very abrupt end to the boom cycle.
Furthermore, the panel isn’t expecting a quick turnaround of the boom that stretched the boundaries of downtown and put a record number of cranes in the air. BMC Investments’ Matt Joblon, who has invested heavily in Cherry Creek, was blunt about what’s ahead: “I think we’re going pretty deep into a recession and I think it’s going to be drawn out, unfortunately,” Joblon cautioned. His reasoning: “You can’t put a global economy into a coma for two months and just turn it back on and expect things to go back to normal,” he asserted. “If you’re expecting that, you’re going to get punched in the face, really hard.”
Projects currently being built will obviously get finished, according to the panel, but after that it’s from full throttle to sudden stop. “When I can go out and buy a distressed asset at half the price I can build it new, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going to happen,” Rhys Duggan, president-CEO of Revesco Properties, explicitly explained.
City Crunch
The nationwide financial crisis created by the pandemic and policymakers is doubly grim for Denver. In terms of vulnerability, the City is ranked the nation’s third worst, just behind Detroit. Denver is one of the cities that relies heavily on sales taxes, meaning the closure of restaurants and retail outlets will create an immediate reduction in city revenue. The city’s financial staff expects city tax collections to shrink by an estimated $180 million. The shortfall equates to a 12% drop in tax revenue — roughly double the hit caused by the 2009 recession.
The fact is Denver’s stay-at-home mandate has cramped consumer spending, crippled restaurants and shops, canceled the city’s tourism industry, and essentially vacated DIA. As a result, tax collections from local and online retail stores, restaurants, bars, marijuana dispensaries, hotel stays, car rentals and jet fuel taxes are quickly drying up.
Another big worry is the city’s massive buildup of new apartments. Denver has been among the top three apartment builders in the country, adding more than 15,000 new units per year. History has shown that recessions hit apartments hard. People stop filling units immediately. Vacancy spikes and rent falls. This could be a disaster scenario for Denver since developers were continuing to add tens of thousands of units as 2020 was getting underway.
A New Ballgame
A survey conducted by the Colorado Restaurant Assn. indicated that if eateries weren’t able to open until mid-May, 11% would close permanently. If not opened until the end of May, upwards of 20% might close permanently. Joblon is even less optimistic, predicting that 30% of restaurateurs and retailers will not open again. “That’s going to create massive retail vacancy and unemployment right there,” he told the panel. Joblon adds that as things start to open again, Cherry Creek’s high-end restaurants — including those BMC has invested in — might not be able to survive.
The Valley’s hotel industry is expected to fare even worse. Currently building a new hotel in RiNo that’s scheduled for opening next spring, panel member Andrew Feinstein — managing partner of Exdo Properties — had this to say about the hotel outlook: “The good news is we are on time, and the bad news is that we are on time,” he declared. “It’s going to be a whole new ballgame delivering a hotel with a restaurant and bar in May 2021, but I’m glad it’s May of 2021 and not May of 2020.”
Joblon’s BMC Investments is currently building a hotel and social club on Clayton St. in Cherry Creek, but isn’t expecting additional hotels or other new projects to be built in the district. Thus plans for a hotel at the shuttered Bombay Clay Oven site on Cherry Creek’s Steele St. is unlikely. A pair of developers paid $2 million for the site but a San Francisco firm set to lease the project pulled construction plans when the pandemic hit.
Also in question is the redevelopment of the east side of Clayton St. across from Joblon’s hotel. Broe Real Estate planned to begin a makeover of the eastside of the street this spring. Transformation plans included demolishing two existing structures and replacing them with an eight-story building. Another seven-story building was to be built at an existing parking garage site.
Hotels Hemorrhaging
Denver’s hotel and hospitality sector has been among the Valley’s hardest hit by the pandemics. Owners and investors are reeling, as occupancy dropped to zero and most shut down. Closures included the legendary-ritzy Brown Palace that opened in 1892, and hadn’t closed until now. The city-state’s largest hotel, the Gaylord Rockies Resort also closed, its $80 million, 317-room expansion postponed to stave off money losses. Downtown’s Four Seasons and Grand Hyatt also closed as did the JW Marriott and Halcyon in Cherry Creek. Occupancy isn’t likely to come back until at least the fourth quarter of 2020.
The metro Denver market contains 44,437 rooms across 318 hotels. Another 1,263 keys were delivered during the last 12 months, the largest increase in hotel rooms in Denver’s history. Hoteliers must now grapple with finding a GPS to get them back on the road safely as they begin to accelerate. Unlike in previous years, high speeds could spell disaster unless they make smooth, sensible decisions.
The road ahead will also be challenging for city-state car dealers as Colorado’s first quarter car registrations through March 2020 declined 22.1%. Moreover, Colorado Automobile Dealers Assn. President Tim Jackson is predicting up to a 60% decline, or more, over the next couple of quarters as the impact of the virus impacts travel and the economy.
