Tax Revenue To Drop $180 Million, Double ’09 Recession; Joblon Fears Cherry Creek’s BMC Eatery Ventures May Not Survive
by Glen Richardson
Construction that’s been a-boomin’ in Denver-Cherry Creek since 2013, fueled by a strong job market and a booming tech industry, is about to go bust. That’s the conclusion of an online panel discussion dissecting the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the metro economy.
From Boom To Bust: This DenverInfill photo of Block 162 in the heart of Denver’s Central Business District symbolizes city’s building boom. Projects such as this one on 15th St. between California and Welton are expected to be completed.
Hosted by BusinessDen — the Mile High City’s online homepage — a foursome of developers speaking at Assembly III made it clear that we’ve just seen a very abrupt end to the boom cycle.
Furthermore, the panel isn’t expecting a quick turnaround of the boom that stretched the boundaries of downtown and put a record number of cranes in the air. BMC Investments’ Matt Joblon, who has invested heavily in Cherry Creek, was blunt about what’s ahead: “I think we’re going pretty deep into a recession and I think it’s going to be drawn out, unfortunately,” Joblon cautioned. His reasoning: “You can’t put a global economy into a coma for two months and just turn it back on and expect things to go back to normal,” he asserted. “If you’re expecting that, you’re going to get punched in the face, really hard.”
Projects currently being built will obviously get finished, according to the panel, but after that it’s from full throttle to sudden stop. “When I can go out and buy a distressed asset at half the price I can build it new, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going to happen,” Rhys Duggan, president-CEO of Revesco Properties, explicitly explained.
City Crunch
The nationwide financial crisis created by the pandemic and policymakers is doubly grim for Denver. In terms of vulnerability, the City is ranked the nation’s third worst, just behind Detroit. Denver is one of the cities that relies heavily on sales taxes, meaning the closure of restaurants and retail outlets will create an immediate reduction in city revenue. The city’s financial staff expects city tax collections to shrink by an estimated $180 million. The shortfall equates to a 12% drop in tax revenue — roughly double the hit caused by the 2009 recession.
Apartments Anxious: Broe’s Country Club Towers is symbolic of Denver’s apartment buildup. One of the country’s top three apartment builders, Denver could face a disaster as recession historically hits apartments hard.
The fact is Denver’s stay-at-home mandate has cramped consumer spending, crippled restaurants and shops, canceled the city’s tourism industry, and essentially vacated DIA. As a result, tax collections from local and online retail stores, restaurants, bars, marijuana dispensaries, hotel stays, car rentals and jet fuel taxes are quickly drying up.
Another big worry is the city’s massive buildup of new apartments. Denver has been among the top three apartment builders in the country, adding more than 15,000 new units per year. History has shown that recessions hit apartments hard. People stop filling units immediately. Vacancy spikes and rent falls. This could be a disaster scenario for Denver since developers were continuing to add tens of thousands of units as 2020 was getting underway.
A New Ballgame
Finishing Up In Creek: Construction is being completed at the former Inn At Cherry Creek by developer Matt Joblon. He predicts the Clayton St. hotel-social club will be the last hotel or other new project to be built in the district anytime soon.
A survey conducted by the Colorado Restaurant Assn. indicated that if eateries weren’t able to open until mid-May, 11% would close permanently. If not opened until the end of May, upwards of 20% might close permanently. Joblon is even less optimistic, predicting that 30% of restaurateurs and retailers will not open again. “That’s going to create massive retail vacancy and unemployment right there,” he told the panel. Joblon adds that as things start to open again, Cherry Creek’s high-end restaurants — including those BMC has invested in — might not be able to survive.
The Valley’s hotel industry is expected to fare even worse. Currently building a new hotel in RiNo that’s scheduled for opening next spring, panel member Andrew Feinstein — managing partner of Exdo Properties — had this to say about the hotel outlook: “The good news is we are on time, and the bad news is that we are on time,” he declared. “It’s going to be a whole new ballgame delivering a hotel with a restaurant and bar in May 2021, but I’m glad it’s May of 2021 and not May of 2020.”
Later Is Better: Panelist Andrew Feinstein of Exdo Properties is glad this new hotel on Walnut St. won’t open until May of 2021. Exdo is developing the yet to be named Sage Hospitality Hotel along with Walnut Development partners.
Joblon’s BMC Investments is currently building a hotel and social club on Clayton St. in Cherry Creek, but isn’t expecting additional hotels or other new projects to be built in the district. Thus plans for a hotel at the shuttered Bombay Clay Oven site on Cherry Creek’s Steele St. is unlikely. A pair of developers paid $2 million for the site but a San Francisco firm set to lease the project pulled construction plans when the pandemic hit.
Also in question is the redevelopment of the east side of Clayton St. across from Joblon’s hotel. Broe Real Estate planned to begin a makeover of the eastside of the street this spring. Transformation plans included demolishing two existing structures and replacing them with an eight-story building. Another seven-story building was to be built at an existing parking garage site.
Hotels Hemorrhaging
Virus Closes Palace: Denver’s legendary-ritzy Brown Palace hotel that opened in 1892 hadn’t closed until hit by the pandemic. Most hotels have been forced to close including downtown’s Four Seasons and Grand Hyatt.
Denver’s hotel and hospitality sector has been among the Valley’s hardest hit by the pandemics. Owners and investors are reeling, as occupancy dropped to zero and most shut down. Closures included the legendary-ritzy Brown Palace that opened in 1892, and hadn’t closed until now. The city-state’s largest hotel, the Gaylord Rockies Resort also closed, its $80 million, 317-room expansion postponed to stave off money losses. Downtown’s Four Seasons and Grand Hyatt also closed as did the JW Marriott and Halcyon in Cherry Creek. Occupancy isn’t likely to come back until at least the fourth quarter of 2020.
The metro Denver market contains 44,437 rooms across 318 hotels. Another 1,263 keys were delivered during the last 12 months, the largest increase in hotel rooms in Denver’s history. Hoteliers must now grapple with finding a GPS to get them back on the road safely as they begin to accelerate. Unlike in previous years, high speeds could spell disaster unless they make smooth, sensible decisions.
The road ahead will also be challenging for city-state car dealers as Colorado’s first quarter car registrations through March 2020 declined 22.1%. Moreover, Colorado Automobile Dealers Assn. President Tim Jackson is predicting up to a 60% decline, or more, over the next couple of quarters as the impact of the virus impacts travel and the economy.
One of the most animated races this primary season is House District 6 in East and Central Denver. Three candidates are vying for the nomination and the Democratic primary is set for June 30, 2020. Steven Woodrow currently holds the seat he was appointed to by the vacancy committee and has since February 4, 2020. His current term ends on January 13, 2021, and he is running for re-election.
The vacancy for the House seat occurred when the previous representative, Chris Hansen, received an appointment on January 16, 2020, to fill the unexpired term of Senator Lois Court, who resigned due to health problems. Woodrow won 45 of the 71 votes from the vacancy committee beating out six other candidates.
Now, Woodrow must win the vote of the registered voters in District 6 and many are calling this the race to watch. It appears the election may be close with three candidates vying for the nomination. The challengers to Woodrow are Dan Himelspach and Steven Paletz who are engaging in active campaigns.
Forty-two percent of the registered voters in the district that covers East and Central Denver are registered Democrats while 17 percent are registered Republicans. It is deemed likely that whoever wins the primary later this month will win the seat in the state House.
Himelspach is challenging Woodrow based on the flawed vacancy committee process. “Colorado has the highest number of bureaucrats appointed through the vacancy process than any other state in the country,” said Himelspach. “Although many people who were part of the vacancy committee are supporting our campaign, the process is not reflective of a strong democracy. That’s why I did not participate in the vacancy committee.” Himelspach has been endorsed by District 5 Denver City Councilmember, Amanda Sawyer as well as former City Councilmembers Ed Thomas and Cathy Donohue among others.
Dan Himelspach
Steven Paletz has a similar view as to why the vacancy committee is not a true representation. “The vacancy committee is not representative of the values of the voters of the district and does not include the voices of unaffiliated leaning democrats that make up a significant portion of the primary electorate in HD6,” said Paletz. “The vacancy committee was also not an issue focused vote, but what some committee members described as a ‘popularity contest.’” Paletz’s endorsements include State Senator Robert Rodriguez and State Representatives Kerry Tipper and Cathy Kipp among others.
Although Paletz recognizes that the vacancy committee does not represent the values of the voters, he sees this election as an extension of what he started last year. “I don’t see this campaign as a challenge to Mr. Woodrow,” said Paletz. “Rather, it is a continuation of the campaign that I announced in October of 2019, as I was the first person to formally declare candidacy in the Democratic primary for HD6. I believe HD6 voters deserve the opportunity to have a voice in who will represent them in the state legislature and should have the opportunity to choose a candidate that shares their values.”
Dan Himelspach also jumped into this race early collecting signatures to be on the ballot the first day they became available. “Our campaign has been focused on listening to the concerns of our neighbors and making our state government work for, ‘We the People’ again,” said Himelspach. “The fact that we were the first campaign in all of Colorado to collect the necessary signatures and be placed on the ballot by the Colorado Secretary of State — all without excepting a dime from Corporate PACs, is a testament to the grassroots support our campaign has.”
Himelspach, who has lived in Denver for four decades has a clear sense of what he would do if elected. “When elected, I am going to focus on fighting for our teachers and students by supporting strong public schools, protecting our environment, and supporting our LGBTQ neighbors and protecting a women’s right to choose,” said Himelspach. “Right now, our state is faced with tough decisions on how to properly open and support our small businesses and protect our workers and families — not just economically, but also in relation to our public health and safety. As someone who runs a small family-owned business with my daughter [selling innovative products to brain researchers all over the world] and who is a dispute resolution professional — mediating over 7,000 disputes, I am most qualified to navigate us through this pandemic.”
Steven Paletz
Paletz also outlines what he would do focusing on mental health and economic recovery. “If elected, I will lead with empathy on addressing our state’s mental health crisis, including addressing the highest increase of teen suicide in the nation and the nation’s highest teen depression rate,” said Paletz. “Having worked in both the business community and all three branches of government, I will also be a leader on our state’s economic recovery from COVID-19. This includes securing support for Colorado’s workers and small business communities throughout this recovery. Lastly, I will protect public education and look for creative ways to ensure our teacher shave the resources they need to effectively lead in a post COVID-19 classroom.”
Steven Woodrow
Steven Woodrow was contacted for comment but did not respond. His website states: “As State Representative, I advocate for social, racial, environmental and economic justice down at the Capitol. Standing up against predatory lenders, unfair credit practices, privacy violators and other powerful interests (including the NRA!) I have a detailed understanding of law and policy, the proven experience of how to make our case most effectively, and unwavering resolve. I’m simply not afraid to compete in the marketplace of ideas in the face of well-funded opposition.”
Woodrow, who is attempting to win re-election, lives in Wash Park with his wife and two sons. Woodrow has served for the past several years as Co-Captain of House District 6B for the Denver Democratic Party.
Councilwoman Amanda Sawyer is the Denver City Council representative for District 5. You can follow her on social media at @Denver Council5 and sign up for her newsletters at bit.ly/council5news.
This time last year looked very different in Denver. Run-off election results were just coming in, and the citizens had spoken loudly and clearly. When the dust settled, Mayor Hancock had won a third term, but three challengers had unseated incumbent Councilmembers — something almost unheard-of in our City that left political insiders scratching their heads and with mouths agape. What did it all mean?
As one of the winners who came into office riding that wave of political discontent last June, I believe that when the citizens of Denver chose new City Councilmembers they were saying they wanted to bring checks and balances to local government, more accountability and transparency, and more communication from their leaders.
My first year in office, I have worked hard to live by those values and bring them back to our government in a number of ways. I’ve researched how other cities with strong-mayor forms of government (like Denver’s) function, and what kinds of processes and procedures these cities use to bring balance, transparency and accountability to their communities. In my research I found something very interesting: the majority of Denver’s strong-mayor “sister” cities in the U.S. — those cities we look to when considering similar policies — participate in a process where their City Councilmembers have some form of approval power over the Mayor’s appointees. Denver is the only strong-mayor system in the State of Colorado that does not follow this practice. It’s time we institute it in Denver.
This month, I am introducing an amendment to the Denver Charter that, if referred to the voters by City Council, will require City Council approval of all Mayoral Cabinet appointees, as well as confirmation of the three heads of Denver’s Safety departments. This proposal gives Denver residents a voice through their independently elected City Council representatives. It respects our strong-mayor form of government while bringing a bit more balance to the system. If approved by voters in November 2020, it would mean that in addition to the Chiefs of Police and Fire, and the Denver Sheriff, a majority of City Councilmembers would have to approve the Executive Directors of: Aviation, City Attorney, Community Planning & Development, Dept. of Public Health & Environment, Dept. of Transportation & Infrastructure, Excise & License, Finance, General Services, Human Services, Parks & Recreation, and Safety.
This proposal is not popular with Denver’s current Mayor and his camp. Their concern is that this may overly-politicize the process and deter qualified candidates from applying for these positions. Those are valid concerns, but those risks already exist even without this Charter amendment in place. These are political appointments and public positions. These are jobs with salaries set by ordinance, and whose emails are subject to the Colorado Open Records Act. In short, they are jobs that enjoy a lower expectation of privacy than an ordinary job, and any candidate applying for one of these positions is aware of that.
Furthermore, every executive-level job search has an element of this risk associated with it, no matter whether the position is in government or the private sector. Council approving Mayoral appointments is analogous to a situation in the private sector where corporate boards approve C-suite appointments in a corporation. If a candidate for one of the most powerful positions in Denver cannot garner the support of seven members of a 13-member City Council, they shouldn’t be in the position in the first place. Instituting a process that brings more balance, transparency and accountability to our strong-mayor form of government makes sense. It is good governance. It is a policy that many other strong-mayor cities follow successfully, and it is time to bring it to Denver. This proposal will go before City Council’s Finance & Governance Committee on June 9, 2020, at 1:30 p.m. I urge you to reach out to your local City Councilmember and ask them to refer this initiative to the November 2020 ballot so that the citizens of Denver can vote on it.
Ted Trimpa is the Principal and CEO of Trimpa Group, a national political consulting and government relations firm that specializes in progressive public policy advocacy and political strategy.
Governor Jared Polis blazes his own trail and is now living in a whirlwind. Self-made before those of his age hadn’t decided whether they liked vodka or tequila, and never a beacon of fashion — he makes Hickenlooper seem stylish, our Governor has always been on a determined path. Iconoclastic, entrepreneurial, a disrupter and always willing to question the norm, he calls them as he sees them. And thank God for that.
As this once-in-a-lifetime pandemic keeps hitting him between the eyes, he continues not to flinch. While some are ditching and dodging and others reacting with too quick a heavy hand or no hand at all, our governor is being stern, but thoughtful. Methodical but calibrated. Are there civil liberties in question and possible infringements on one’s personal freedoms? Well, of course, yes, but we also must consider what we’re facing.
At the beginning of the pandemic in Colorado, our governor was one of the first to take bold action. Faced with a proven, imminent, public health threat at our ski resorts, one of the most impactful economic drivers of our state, he closed them down.
When Castle Rock restaurant and bar owners, proclaiming respect for, and an exercise of, personal freedom opened their business, blatantly defying the governor’s statewide closure order for non-essential businesses, he closed them down. And it’s near unfathomable that this exercise of personal freedom was done with a packed house on Mother’s Day.
And most recently, when told COVID-19 deaths were being over counted in Colorado, our governor went public explaining what happened and how Colorado would report the new numbers. He even went on FOX — a move that won’t get any kudos at partisan parties any time soon.
And let us not forget he was the first Democratic governor in the country to make methodical and calibrated moves to reopen a state.
Now, with all that said, his COVID-19 press conferences can be, well, an experience. Sometimes you squirm in your seat. The sound system never seems to work quite right. You rarely, if ever, can hear the reporters’ questions. And the governor can get lecture-like, oddly weaving in biblical references, later analogizing music lyrics from a generation way before him, and then use sports analogies.
Oh, and the Cuomo-esque powerpoint slides of data? With font sizes smaller than an ant, formulas that are impossible to follow, I keep having flashbacks to my frustrations during college statistics.
But Jared’s quirks and clear obsession for being in the weeds is endearing and refreshing. Cut through this thicket, and you’ll see that our governor is rocking it. Paraphrasing Queen from the ’70s, “he will, he will, rock you.”
Now, there are some who question the governor’s authority to do any of this, and that he’s infringing on their personal freedoms — concerns that are valid. But we live in a constitutional, democratic, republic and empower and trust our elected leaders to protect us. We must respect them, and let them do their jobs.
Now this does not mean that COVID-19 should be the go-to excuse to suspend laws at will. There must always be a high bar to suspend laws or regulations, particularly when businesses may be closed. Our public and community health must be in imminent risk. We’re still above that high bar in Colorado, and yes, the governor is drawing lines, effectively picking winners and losers, but he’s having to do it at 100 miles per hour. It will never be perfect.
If you’re upset about the governor’s present policies, his approach, or whatever, by all means, speak your mind. But do so in a way that won’t threaten the lives of others, and preferably without the intimidating presence of firearms. In times like these, we should be asking ourselves whose personal freedoms are truly being threatened.
It’s undeniable an asymptomatic person can unknowingly spread the virus to many, who in turn can spread it to many more. Some will get ill; some gravely so; and some will die. Flowing from the initial exercise of personal freedom, one can effectively deny it to others. It’s tautological that a dead person can’t exercise his personal freedoms.
Now I would be disingenuous if I didn’t mention that I too, like many others, have my own frustrations and quibbles with some of the COVID-19 policies. What really are “essential businesses” and shouldn’t we be talking in terms of “essential products and services?” Alcohol and adult use marijuana are “essential,” but adult vaping is not? Target and WalMart get to stay open while small businesses that sell many of the same or similar products do not? This simply is not fair.
But no matter how many tiny-print slides we have to suffer, song lyrics from the ’70s we have to hear, or biblical references that take us back to vacation Bible school, I sleep soundly knowing Governor Polis and his team are in charge. I guess one could say they truly are hitting home runs.
